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Upgrading Leadership's Crystal Ball: Five Reasons Why Forecasting Must Replace
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eBay-objectnummer:256272102899
Specificaties
- Objectstaat
- Pages
- 168
- Publication Date
- 2013-10-24
- ISBN
- 9781466554030
Over dit product
Product Identifiers
Publisher
Productivity Press
ISBN-10
1466554037
ISBN-13
9781466554030
eBay Product ID (ePID)
113238730
Product Key Features
Number of Pages
168 Pages
Publication Name
Upgrading Leadership's Crystal Ball : Five Reasons Why Forecasting Must Replace Predicting and How to Make the Strategic Change in Business and Public Policy
Language
English
Publication Year
2013
Subject
Finance / General, Economics / General, Management Science, Quality Control
Type
Textbook
Subject Area
Business & Economics
Format
Trade Paperback
Dimensions
Item Height
0.5 in
Item Weight
10.4 Oz
Item Length
9 in
Item Width
6.1 in
Additional Product Features
Intended Audience
College Audience
Reviews
Jeff Bauer's new book positively crackles with energy and brio, whether he's busting a myth or sharing an anecdote about WWII meteorology. Like any truly learned teacher, his message is simple and accessible: predictions give us the illusion of precision and trap us in the duality of Right and (mostly) Wrong. A forecast, by contrast, illuminates a garden of likely outcomes; it stirs our creativity and poises us for action. --Tim Ogilvie, CEO, Peer Insight and co-author of Designing for Growth
Dewey Edition
23
Illustrated
Yes
Dewey Decimal
330.0112
Table Of Content
Introduction New Definitions The Difference Matters: Chance and Uncertainty The Content to Come The Less-Is-More Approach Citing Precedent Acknowledgments Predicting Introduction The Emblematic Crystal Ball Scientific Foundations of Predicting and Modeling Appropriate Uses of Predicting Statistical Foundations of Predicting Econometrics and Modeling The Growth of Modeling Univariate Predictive Models Multivariate Predictive Models Additional Readings Five Fatal Flaws of Predicting Introduction 1. Discontinuities in System Dynamics Trending Toward Disorder 2. Violations of Model Assumptions 3. Deficiencies of Available Data Validity and Reliability 4. Failures of Previous Predictions 5. Diversions from Strategic Innovation Additional Readings Forecasting Introduction Forecasting's Foundations From Predicting to Forecasting the Weather Identifying Explanatory Variables Specifying the Model Measuring the Explanatory Variables Analyzing Variations over Time Assembling the Forecast Interpreting a Forecast What Makes a Good Forecaster? Incorporating the Role of Climate Change Expecting the Unexpected Additional Readings Forecasting in Dynamic Systems How to Identify Explanatory Variables How to Specify the Model How to Measure the Explanatory Variables How to Analyze Variations over Time Assigning Weight How to Assemble the Forecast From Weather to Whether From Forecasts to Strategies Expecting Multiple Outcomes Creating the Future from the Forecast Strategic Planning Strategy versus Tactics The Time Dimensions of Strategy and Tactics Basics of a Strategic Plan Conclusion Additional Readings Postscript: Big Data Index
Synopsis
Clearly, concisely, and with many examples from public and private enterprise, Upgrading Leadership's Crystal Ball shows why predictions are usually wrong and presents a better way to look at the future--forecasting. This book is essential-reading for anyone who needs to make the best possible strategic decisions for moving an organization forward in today's rapidly changing environment. Dr. Bauer supplies an insightful comparison of the two mainstream approaches for looking ahead. Although predicting and forecasting are usually used as synonyms for a single process, they are conceptually and methodologically quite different. He explains why everyday failure to operationalize these differences robs us of power to envision and pursue good futures, especially when we are headed in the wrong direction. Readers will learn the real-world value of distinguishing between predicting (extrapolating historical trends) and forecasting (estimating the probabilities of possibilities). Following a description of predictive modeling and a discussion of five reasons why it fails so often in current applications, Dr. Bauer explains the superiority of forecasting and how to do it. To complete readers' understanding of the many compelling reasons for making the shift from predicting to forecasting, Upgrading Leadership's Crystal Ball presents a practical approach to strategic planning in unpredictable times. It concludes with an analysis of the future of big data and its likely impact on the future. Dr. Bauer is uniquely qualified to write this important book; he is trained in both predicting (economics) and forecasting (meteorology). Author of more than 250 publications, he is internationally recognized not only for long-term success in foretelling the future of medical science and health care, but also for successful innovations to create a better delivery system. This book distills the lessons garnered over his 40 year career as economist and futurist into a guide that other leaders can use to avoid problems and create better options in any realm. The book includes a foreword by Dr. Stan Gryskiewicz, author of Positive Turbulence., Clearly, concisely, and with many examples from public and private enterprise, Upgrading Leadership's Crystal Ball shows why predictions are usually wrong and presents a better way to look at the future-forecasting. This book is essential-reading for anyone who needs to make the best possible strategic decisions for moving an organization forward in today's rapidly changing environment. Dr. Bauer supplies an insightful comparison of the two mainstream approaches for looking ahead. Although predicting and forecasting are usually used as synonyms for a single process, they are conceptually and methodologically quite different. He explains why everyday failure to operationalize these differences robs us of power to envision and pursue good futures, especially when we are headed in the wrong direction. Readers will learn the real-world value of distinguishing between predicting (extrapolating historical trends) and forecasting (estimating the probabilities of possibilities). Following a description of predictive modeling and a discussion of five reasons why it fails so often in current applications, Dr. Bauer explains the superiority of forecasting and how to do it. To complete readers' understanding of the many compelling reasons for making the shift from predicting to forecasting, Upgrading Leadership's Crystal Ball presents a practical approach to strategic planning in unpredictable times. It concludes with an analysis of the future of big data and its likely impact on the future. Dr. Bauer is uniquely qualified to write this important book; he is trained in both predicting (economics) and forecasting (meteorology). Author of more than 250 publications, he is internationally recognized not only for long-term success in foretelling the future of medical science and health care, but also for successful innovations to create a better delivery system. This book distills the lessons garnered over his 40 year career as economist and futurist into a guide that other leaders can use to avoid problems and create better options in any realm. The book includes a foreword by Dr. Stan Gryskiewicz, author of Positive Turbulence.
LC Classification Number
HB3730
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